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Margin of Safety AnalysisOur discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $42 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk rating sets the margin of safety or the fair uggs sale bailey bow
value range we assign to each stock. In the uggs sale womens size 11
graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for Deckers. We think the firm is uggs mini boots on sale
attractive below $32 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $53 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.
Future Path of Fair ValueWe estimate Deckers' fair value at this point in time to be about $42 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the firm's current share price with the path of Deckers' expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of uggs sale bailey button triplet boot the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $60 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $42 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside uggs sale reviews
ranges are derived in the same way, but from
the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.
Pro Forma Financial StatementsSource: Deckers Is Showing Relative Strength, But Is There More Upside?
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