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Management has some lofty growth targets. By 2015, it expects to generate $2.4 billion in revenue thanks to growth across its portfolio. Our forecasts don't come anywhere close to that. If management is correct, our fair value estimate is too low.
The firm experienced an operating cash flow CAGR of about 17.3% during the past 3 years. The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. Deckers' 3 year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 80.3%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 12.8%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation rating of EXCELLENT. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, classic tall chestnut uggs sale
in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.
Cash Flow AnalysisFirms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Deckers's free cash flow margin has averaged about 10.2% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is relatively STRONG. The free classic short grey uggs on sale
cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for uggs on sale nordstrom anniversary the company. At Deckers, cash flow from operations decreased about 84% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures expanded about 335% over the same time period.
Valuation AnalysisOur discounted cash flow model indicates that Deckers's shares are worth between $32.00 $53.00 uggs on sale black friday 2014
each. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the firm's MEDIUM ValueRisk rating, which is derived from the historical volatility of key valuation drivers. The margin of safety also reveals Deckers' valuation upside potential, which we peg at $53 per share (the high end of our fair value range). The estimated fair value zulily uggs sale
of $42 per share represents a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of about 8.3 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 4.4 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 3.8% during the next five years, a pace that is lower than the firm's 3 year historical compound annual growth rate of 25.9%. Our model reflects a 5 year projected average operating margin of 15.4%, which is below Deckers' trailing 3 year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 1.5% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Deckers, we use a 12.8% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.
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