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Expectations are really lowExpectations for the company have continued to go lower and lower, and rightly so. The company has basically warned for four straight quarters. After Deckers guided to a huge Q4 after Q2 results, it took down its guidance tremendously at the Q3 report. Analysts still don't believe in Deckers after the recent history. Deckers guided to 6% revenue growth for Q4, but analysts are expecting just 4.1% growth currently. On an earnings per share front, the company guided to a 14% year over year decline, and analysts are currently forecasting about a 17% decline. To show you how much analyst estimates have come down, I've put together the following chart. The chart bailey bow tall uggs on sale shows Deckers' 2010 and 2011 earnings, followed by where 2012 and 2013 expectations have been over a series of dates.
Just 11 months ago, analysts were expecting Deckers' earnings girl uggs boots sale
per share to be $5.91 for 2012 and $6.87 for 2013. Now, they are expecting just $3.36 and $3.77, respectively. Additionally, Deckers' website shows that analysts currently uggs bailey bow boots on sale
expect $4.38 in earnings during 2014. If that occurs, Deckers would see a roughly 13% decline in earnings over three years, despite the huge buyback in place. Net income would fall at a much more significant rate.
With expectations so low, this is where Deckers has an opportunity. Analysts expect just 3.6% revenue growth this year, where Deckers' guidance was for 5%. For 2013, analysts are only looking for 4.5% baby uggs erin sale revenue growth currently. But again, expectations coming down this much is why the stock has fallen roughly 70% over the past year. Deckers has not issued a 2013 forecast just yet, other than some of the margin commentary provided above, so we'll have to wait until Deckers reports Q4 and full year results to get guidance. But as many have pointed out, this is a name where nearly half of the shares outstanding are short. Should Deckers be able to weather the storm and have a decent Q4 and guidance, a major short squeeze could occur. But it has to deliver, and lately, it hasn't been delivering.?Deckers Investors Might Be Missing The Bigger Picture
By now, most of us know that Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) is well known for its UGG boot line, which at times can produce up to 90% of company profits. It should be obvious that 90% is risky, and Deckers is looking to shed that risk with two of its latest brand acquisitions Sanuk uggs adirondack for sale and Hoka One One.
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