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As you can see from my earlier note Deckers nailed my 2012 EPS on the money at $3.45 and exceeded my revenue ($1,375 million) and very uggs mini boots on sale likely my EBITDA estimate ($197 million before adding back stock comp). I have revised my 2013 model and it coincides pretty much with management's guidance for the year which suggests management's guidance is less delusional uggs australia canada sale
than it was mid stream in 2012. My 2013 revenue estimate is $1,517 million, EBITDA is $230 million and EPS is $3.65. While sales are back end loaded (presenting some risk given low visibility) the sheer really cheap uggs for sale impact of opening 30 retail stores is a big contributor as is eCommerce and the renewed growth in international sales. (Note these estimates do not have the benefit of reading cheap bailey button uggs for sale
through the company's 10 K which has not yet been released.)
From a valuation standpoint the shares are relatively cheap at $43.33 (in uggs sale thanksgiving after hours trading) which represents 12x my 2013 EPS and 6.3x my EBITDA estimates. In addition investor expectations are low which leads me to believe the short opportunity is now gone for DECK (and short covering and the buyback could provide something of a boost). I could see the shares drifting slowly into the mid $50s this year which would put the valuation at 15x 2013 EPS and 8x 2013 EBITDA, both fair for a sputtering, but high quality branded consumer products company.
Source: Happy Sheep! Deckers 4Q Highlights And Lowlights
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in DECK over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship uggs sale dillards
with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More.)?Deckers 4Q net income falls 23 percent
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